Gentrification and Displacement Risk Assessment in San Joaquin County

In recent years, San Joaquin County has been characterized by the jobs-housing imbalance affecting much of the state. As the Bay Area’s economy has continued to grow, that growth has outpaced the region’s performance in producing a sufficient amount of additional housing affordable to low and moderate-income households. This has resulted in rapid increases in the cost of housing. San Joaquin County is one of many localities that has absorbed households leaving the higher-cost Bay Area region. In many cases, these residents continue to continue to work in the Bay Area and engage in what are now termed “mega-commutes”- traveling 90-minutes or more one-way to a place of work. These mega commuting households often have higher incomes relative to households employed locally and are contributing to increased housing costs and housing burden in San Joaquin County, in addition to increased congestion and greenhouse gas emissions. At the same time, San Joaquin County faces long-persistent housing challenges, including a lack of subsidized affordable housing, poor quality housing conditions and a lack of tenant protections and legal aid supports.

The San Joaquin Council of Governments (SJCOG) hired Enterprise Community Partners and the CRC to better understand the displacement vulnerability of San Joaquin County households. Through the development of a customized mapping tool, interested stakeholders can better understand what neighborhoods face the greatest displacement risk as well as what portions of the county have tipped into “exclusionary” territory – where housing prices have increased to the point that vulnerable households are effectively priced out. In addition, the accompanying report recommends strategies that the San Joaquin Council of Governments can take to begin ensuring that its own investment practices help to support neighborhood housing stability and don’t inadvertently contribute to or directly cause residential displacement.


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